This paper presents a novel methodology for enhancing project duration estimation by sequentially integrating the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), beta distributions, and smoothed Monte Carlo simulation. Starting with PERT’s three-point estimates, the approach models task durations using beta distributions, which are then sampled through smoothed Monte Carlo simulations to achieve a consistent 90th-percentile confidence level for robust predictions. Implemented in accessible tools like Google Sheets, the methodology ensures practical application across diverse project management contexts. The approach demonstrates the potential for improved accuracy and reliability in duration estimates, strengthening risk management and decision-making for project execution.